Chart & Einstieg
Forward Fair Value · Calculator
| Jahr | Claude FV | Deine FV | Δ FV | Revenue (Deine) | Margin (Deine) | Upside Claude | Upside Deine |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ende 2026 | $0.00 | $0.00 | — | $4.9B | +46.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Ende 2027 | $0.00 | $0.00 | — | $5.4B | +47.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Ende 2028 | $0.00 | $0.00 | — | $6B | +48.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
Historie (5 Jahre)
Begründung
These · aktualisiert 01.05.2026
Robinhood's platform flywheel remains structurally compelling at $307B in assets (+39% YoY), 4.3M Gold subscribers (+36%), and Net Deposits +22% annualized. Event Contracts grew 320% YoY to become a significant revenue diversifier. At $67.50, the stock reflects a 14% post-earnings discount and ~32x forward P/E — still above peers but the platform has uniquely large growth TAMs in prediction markets, international expansion, and high-yield savings. If crypto markets recover in H2 2026 and Event Contracts scale further, FY2026 revenue could rebound to $5B+ and justify accumulation at $50-55 range.
Q1 2026 confirmed the structural bear case: $1.07B revenue missed $1.14B consensus by 6%, crypto -47% YoY shows the core transaction revenue engine is cyclically impaired. The stock still trades at 32x forward P/E — a 50-90% premium to comparable fintechs (IBKR 21x, SCHW 17x). At blended FV $46, there is 32% downside from $67.50. The $100M OpEx investment in Trump Accounts creates 2026 margin headwind. Event Contracts face regulatory risk from CFTC and state AGs. There is no catalyst visible in the next 90 days that justifies current premium valuation.
Q2 2026 Earnings (August): Revenue trend and crypto recovery signal. CFTC Event Contracts ruling (Summer 2026): could validate or constrain the fastest-growing segment. Robinhood UK/EU International Expansion launch. FOMC decisions impacting NII on $5.85B net cash. Any crypto market recovery (BTC above $100k) directly lifts transaction revenue.
1) Crypto structural bear market: without crypto transaction recovery, FY2026 revenue stays below $5B and the Rule-of-40 score deteriorates. 2) Event Contracts regulatory restriction: CFTC or state prohibition of prediction markets would remove the highest-growth revenue segment. 3) Multiple compression: at 32x forward PE, any miss triggers violent de-rating toward peer multiples (17-21x) implying $36-44 target — 35-47% downside.
Snapshot-HistoryRevenue: +3.1% · Margin: -4.0%
| Datum | Preis | Market Cap | P/E | Rev TTM | Rev Growth | EBITDA-Marge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01.05.2026 | $67.50 | $60.8B | 32.6 | $4.8B | +12.0% | +48.0% |
| 30.04.2026 | $71.20 | $64.1B | 34.6 | $4.6B | +15.0% | +50.0% |
News
- 30.04.2026Snap: 01.05.2026●●○Barclays Resets Robinhood Price Target for Rest of 2026 After Earnings Miss
Barclays lowered its HOOD price target following Q1 2026 revenue miss, citing crypto revenue volatility and OpEx investments in Trump Accounts creating margin headwind. Stock now trades at 32x forward P/E vs peers SCHW 17x and IBKR 21x, implying 30-40% valuation premium to fundamentally comparable fintechs.
Yahoo Finance - 01.05.2026●●○Robinhood Gold 4.3M Subscribers (+36% YoY), Platform Assets $307B
Recurring Revenue-Streams stark: Gold Subscribers auf Rekord 4.3M. Platform Assets $307B (+39% YoY), Net Deposits annualisiert 22% Wachstum — zeigt Account-Aggregation funktioniert.
stocktitan.net - 01.05.2026●●○Gurufocus: HOOD 66.6% Overvalued nach Q1 Miss
Gurufocus intrinsic Value Analyse sieht HOOD 66.6% überbewertet. GF Score 78/100 (anständig fundamentally, aber Bewertung problematisch). Konsens mit SELL/Underperform-Tendenz.
gurufocus.com - 01.05.2026●●○Robinhood Guides 2026 OpEx $2.7-2.825B, inklusive $100M für Trump Accounts
Management erhöht OpEx-Guidance und investiert USD 100M in 'Trump Accounts' (steuerliche Sparkonten) — zusätzliche Kostenlast drückt 2026-Margin-Expansion.
globenewswire.com - 29.04.2026Snap: 01.05.2026●●●Robinhood Q1 2026 Earnings Miss: Revenue $1.07B vs $1.14B Expected, Crypto Down 47%
Robinhood reported Q1 2026 revenue of $1.07B (+15% YoY) but missed analyst consensus of $1.14B. Crypto transaction revenue collapsed 47% YoY amid digital asset market downturn. EPS of $0.38 missed $0.39 estimate. Gold subscribers hit record 4.3M (+36% YoY) and platform assets reached $307B (+39% YoY). Stock fell 14% in post-market trading.
Yahoo Finance - 01.05.2026●●●Robinhood Q1 2026: Revenue USD 1.07B misst Erwartungen, EPS USD 0.38 vs Est. 0.44
Q1 2026 Earnings Miss: Revenue 9% unter Konsens, EPS 14% unter Schätzungen. Aktie fiel nach Earnings 9%+. Crypto-Revenue -47% YoY, Event Contracts +320% YoY als Gegenpol.
investing.com - 01.05.2026●●●Robinhood Crypto Revenue Crashes 47% YoY in Q1 2026, Event Contracts Surge 320%
Crypto-Revenue kollabierte auf USD 134M (-47% YoY) durch schwache Handelsvolumen. Event Contracts/Prediction Markets USD 147M (+320%) wurde zum zweitgrößten Revenue-Treiber nach NII.
qz.com - 30.04.2026●●●Crypto-Revenue stürzt -47% YoY auf $134M, durch Event-Contracts (+320%) auf $147M kompensiert
Crypto-Trading-Volumes -48% auf $24B. Event-Contracts (Prediction Markets) explodieren mit +320% YoY auf $147M und werden zur größten Wachstums-Säule.
CoinDesk - 30.04.2026●●○Net Interest Revenue +24% YoY auf $359M; Funded Customers 27.4M (+6%); Gold Subscribers 4.3M (+36%)
NII solide trotz niedriger Short-Term-Rates. Robinhood-Gold-Abos beschleunigen sich (4.3M +36% YoY) — recurring-Revenue-Anteil wächst. Net Deposits $17.7B (annualized 22%).
Stocktitan - 30.04.2026●●○Aktie -8% nach Earnings-Miss
Q1-Crypto-Schwäche schickt Stock auf den niedrigsten Stand seit November 2025; Forward P/E weiter bei 35.9 — Bewertung weiterhin reich.
Yahoo Finance - 30.04.2026●●●Robinhood verfehlt Q1 2026 Erwartungen — Revenue $1.07B (Konsens $1.18B), EPS $0.38 (Konsens $0.44)
Q1 Revenue +15% YoY auf $1.07B aber unter Konsens $1.18B. EPS $0.38 verfehlt $0.44-Erwartung. GF-Score 78/100 mit Bewertung 66.6% overvalued.
GuruFocus