LBRT
Liberty Energy Inc.HOLD⚡ Narrativ-Shift
FV revised from $26.32 to $35.00 after Q1 2026 EBITDA beat (+13% vs estimate) validates digiPrime fleet efficiency and pricing recovery. Power transition optionality added to valuation. Verdict upgraded from TRIM to HOLD.
Chart & Einstieg
Forward Fair Value · Calculator
Hinweis: Framework ist cyclical-pe — die Sensitivität ist eine Approximation. Risk-Discount funktioniert frameworkübergreifend, Wachstum/Margin/Multiple sind primär für EBITDA-basierte Frameworks (dcf, ev-ebitda, sum-of-parts, rule-of-40) belastbar.
| Jahr | Claude FV | Deine FV | Δ FV | Revenue (Deine) | Margin (Deine) | Upside Claude | Upside Deine |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ende 2026 | $0.00 | $0.00 | — | $4.1B | +13.5% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Ende 2027 | $0.00 | $0.00 | — | $4.5B | +15.5% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Ende 2028 | $0.00 | $0.00 | — | $5.2B | +17.5% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
Historie (5 Jahre)
Begründung
These · aktualisiert 01.05.2026
Q1 2026 delivered the first hard evidence that Liberty's power transition thesis is real: EBITDA $125.9M (+13.4% vs estimate) on $1.02B revenue with record pumping efficiencies, driven by digiPrime 100%-gas fleets gaining pricing premium. The Vantage Power partnership (400MW reservation, 1GW pipeline target by 2028) opens a structurally differentiated revenue stream with take-or-pay characteristics and potentially 18%+ EBITDA margins — entirely separate from the cyclical frac market. At $33, the stock is transitioning from 'expensive cyclical' to 'sum-of-parts story' with a Power segment worth $20-25/share at 8x EBITDA on $270M revenue potential by 2028 plus the core frac business at 10-12x mid-cycle EBITDA.
The power-generation narrative is at early-stage execution with first cashflows no earlier than 2027: capital is committed via $1.3B convertible issuance but revenue is unproven in this segment. The core frac market remains over-supplied and cyclically challenged, with EPS at cycle trough ($0.06 non-GAAP Q1) barely covering the premium valuation. Forward P/E of 95x reflects only aggressive 2027-28 estimates. If power deals encounter permitting delays or hyperscaler capex slows, the bear case reverts to cyclical-PE of $13-15 with 60% downside from current levels.
Q2 2026 Earnings (July): sequential margin recovery and first power-segment contract update. Power-pipeline first commercial power delivery (target 2027). Additional hyperscaler power contracts replicating Vantage template. OPEC+ production guidance H2 2026 as frac demand indicator.
1) Power-pipeline execution risk: 1GW target requires regulatory approvals, equipment delivery, and operational ramp — any delay pushes payback timeline out 2 years. 2) Frac pricing cycle: if E&P customers reduce capex in response to oil price weakness below $65/bbl, LBRT returns to cyclical-trough pricing. 3) Convertible dilution: $1.3B convertible issuance becomes equity dilution above strike price, pressuring EPS if the power story delivers.
Snapshot-History
| Datum | Preis | Market Cap | P/E | Rev TTM | Rev Growth | EBITDA-Marge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01.05.2026 | $33.09 | $5.4B | 36.4 | $4.1B | -1.0% | +13.5% |
News
- 01.05.2026●●●Liberty Energy Reports Q1 2026 Revenue $1.02B, Beats Estimates
Q1 CY2026 Revenue $1.02B (+4.5% YoY), Adj-EBITDA $126M trotz Pricing-Headwinds. Diluted EPS $0.14 vs −$0.14 Konsens. Forward Guidance: sequenzielles Wachstum + Margin-Recovery in Q2 durch tightening Frac-Capacity.
Stock Titan - 01.05.2026●●○Liberty issues $1.3B convertible notes alongside Q1 print
Liberty platzierte $1.3B Convertible-Notes fällig 2030. Mittelverwendung primär für Power-Generation-Capex (digiPrime + LAET). Verwässerungsrisiko bei Aktienpreis-Anstieg.
Stock Titan - 01.05.2026●●●Vantage Data Centers + Liberty Energy: 1GW Power-Partnership
Strategische Partnerschaft mit Vantage über bis zu 1GW Power-Solutions in 5 Jahren, inkl. 400MW Reservation für 2027. Schritt vom reinen Frac-Service-Provider zum Datacenter-Power-Adjacent-Player.
Liberty IR - 28.04.2026Snap: 01.05.2026●●●Liberty Energy Q1 2026 Beats: Revenue $1.02B, EBITDA $125.9M vs $111M Estimate (+13.4%)
Liberty Energy delivered a Q1 2026 upside surprise: revenue $1.02B (+4.5% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $125.9M vs $111M consensus (+13.4%), non-GAAP EPS $0.06 beat. Record pumping efficiencies offset pricing headwinds and winter weather disruption. Vantage Power partnership (400MW reservation on 1GW pipeline) is on track. Validates the power-transition thesis.
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