MBLY
Mobileye Global Inc.HOLDChart & Einstieg
Forward Fair Value · Calculator
| Jahr | Claude FV | Deine FV | Δ FV | Revenue (Deine) | Margin (Deine) | Upside Claude | Upside Deine |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ende 2026 | $0.00 | $0.00 | — | $2B | +12.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Ende 2027 | $0.00 | $0.00 | — | $2.3B | +16.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Ende 2028 | $0.00 | $0.00 | — | $2.7B | +20.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
Historie (5 Jahre)
Begründung
These · aktualisiert 01.05.2026
Q1 2026 confirmed ADAS volume recovery is real: revenue $558M (+27% YoY) beat estimates by $42M on EyeQ SoC volume ramp and Chinese OEM export tailwinds. FY2026 guidance was raised to $1.975B midpoint with a new $250M share repurchase program — signals management confidence at current $8.69 valuation. Three new Surround ADAS design wins (Volkswagen, major US OEM, Mahindra) at $100-150 ASP vs legacy $40-60 add >10% annual revenue when launched. Net cash $620M after Mentee Robotics acquisition provides flexibility. At 32x forward P/E on $1.975B revenue, the stock re-rates on SuperVision ramp and Chauffeur (Eyes-Off) launch in H2 2026.
The $3.8B goodwill impairment is a management signal that future cash flows are being revised downward — not a trivial concern. Intel's 77% ownership stake creates a persistent spinoff overhang: any new tranche offering depresses the stock for weeks. The ADAS competitive landscape is intensifying: NVDA Drive Hyperion, Tesla FSD as licensed product, and Chinese in-house solutions (Huawei CarOS, BYD ADS) are all eroding legacy EyeQ ASP advantage in the mass-market segment. If Chinese OEM export volumes reverse due to US tariff escalation, the Q1 tailwind becomes a Q2-Q3 headwind.
Q2 2026 Earnings (July): Validation of FY2026 guidance trajectory and first SuperVision volume contribution. Chauffeur Eyes-Off Highway roll-out H2 2026. Further Intel spinoff tranches and scale of demand. Mentee Robotics robotics platform introduction. TD Cowen raised PT to $16; additional upgrades possible if Q2 beats.
1) Intel spinoff tranches: ~73% of MBLY shares held by Intel represent a structural supply overhang. Each divestiture tranche of 5-10% creates months of downward pressure. 2) Chinese OEM export risk: US export controls on automotive semiconductors to China could eliminate the Q1 2026 demand tailwind that drove the beat. 3) Goodwill impairment cycle: $3.8B impairment indicates management's own DCF revisions are significant — risk of further impairments if Mentee integration disappoints.
Snapshot-History
| Datum | Preis | Market Cap | P/E | Rev TTM | Rev Growth | EBITDA-Marge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01.05.2026 | $8.69 | $7.3B | — | $2.1B | +8.8% | +10.0% |
News
- 01.05.2026●●●Mobileye Q1 2026 Revenue Up 27% to $558M, Lifts FY26 Outlook
Q1 2026 Revenue $558M (+27% YoY), FY26-Guidance auf $1.975B angehoben. $250M Share-Repurchase-Programm angekündigt, Mahindra als zweiter SuperVision-Kunde gewonnen.
Mobileye IR - 01.05.2026●●●Mobileye Records $3.8B Goodwill Impairment in Q1 2026
Non-Cash-Goodwill-Impairment von $3.79B führt zu Net-Loss von $3.82B im Q1 2026. Ausgelöst durch ~35% Aktienkurs-Rückgang und höhere Diskontraten.
StockTitan - 01.05.2026●●○Mobileye Acquires Mentee Robotics for $591M Cash
Mobileye übernimmt Mentee Robotics, eine AI-First-Humanoid-Robotics-Firma. Erweitert Mission über Automotive hinaus auf Robotik-Plattformen.
Grafa - 01.05.2026●●○Motley Fool: Ugly Earnings Mask Powerful ADAS Growth Story
Analysten sehen unter dem Headline-Verlust eine starke ADAS-Wachstumsstory. Intel-Backed-Upside und China-Export-Stärke werden als Trigger benannt.
Motley Fool - 23.04.2026Snap: 01.05.2026●●●Mobileye Q1 2026 Revenue $558M (+27% YoY) Beats, Raises FY2026 Guidance to $1.975B
Mobileye beat Q1 2026 consensus: revenue $558M vs $519M expected, adj EPS $0.12 vs $0.09 estimated. Revenue grew 27% YoY on EyeQ SoC volume ramp and Chinese OEM export demand. FY2026 guidance raised to $1.935-2.015B (midpoint $1.975B). $250M share repurchase announced. $3.8B goodwill impairment (Mentee Robotics) is non-cash; operating cash flow remained positive at $75M. Stock +11.7% on day.
BusinessWire - 23.04.2026Snap: 01.05.2026●●○Mobileye Takes $3.8B Goodwill Impairment in Q1 2026, GAAP EPS -$4.68
Mobileye recorded a $3.8B non-cash goodwill impairment in Q1 2026 related to its Mentee Robotics acquisition, resulting in GAAP net loss of $3.8B and EPS of -$4.68. Management emphasized the impairment reflects future cash flow revisions, not operating deterioration. Adjusted metrics show positive trajectory. Intel 77% ownership overhang continues to weigh on valuation optionality.
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