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Forward Fair Value · Calculator
| Jahr | Claude FV | Deine FV | Δ FV | Revenue (Deine) | Margin (Deine) | Upside Claude | Upside Deine |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ende 2026 | $0.00 | $0.00 | — | $0 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Ende 2027 | $0.00 | $0.00 | — | $0 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Ende 2028 | $0.00 | $0.00 | — | $0 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
Historie (5 Jahre)
Begründung
These · aktualisiert 01.05.2026
Realty Income is the gold standard of Net-Lease REITs: 667 consecutive monthly dividends, 98.7% occupancy across 1,500+ tenants, and investment-grade balance sheet. The improving rate environment (Fed at 3.75%, 10Y at 4.08%) directly compresses the WACC and expands the implied fair value to $82+. AFFO guidance of $4.38-4.42 is tight and reliable, implying a 5% dividend yield that is inflation-protected via rent escalators. European expansion (Sale-Leaseback deals with Kaufland, Decathlon) diversifies revenue geographically and opens a structurally underserved market. At $64, fair value upside of ~28% plus the 5% annual dividend yield creates a 30%+ total return potential over 12-18 months.
REITs remain structurally vulnerable to any re-acceleration of inflation forcing the Fed to re-hike. Net-Lease portfolios heavily exposed to US retail (~80%) — any wave of tenant bankruptcies (Walgreens, Dollar General restructurings) could spike vacancy above the 1.3% current free space. The $30B net debt at fixed/floating mix creates refinancing risk if credit spreads widen. At a 15-16x P/AFFO multiple, the stock is not deeply cheap — it's fairly valued with an improving macro tailwind.
May 6, 2026: Q1 2026 earnings report — AFFO tracking and guidance reaffirmation would be positive. Fed meetings May/June 2026: Further rate cuts (or pause signal) directly impacts REIT valuation. New European Sale-Leaseback deal announcements in Q2-Q3 2026. 10Y yield staying below 4.5% for sustained period enables multiple expansion.
1. Rate Reversal: Any 10Y yield spike above 4.5% on CPI surprise or debt concerns would compress multiples by $8-10/share per 50bp. 2. Tenant Stress: Walgreens and Dollar General continue to face operating pressure; concentrated exposure to both (~5-8% of portfolio) creates vacancy risk. 3. Capital Market Risk: $30B net debt requires regular refinancing; if credit spreads widen materially, cost of new acquisitions increases and AFFO growth slows.
Snapshot-History
| Datum | Preis | Market Cap | P/E | Rev TTM | Rev Growth | EBITDA-Marge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01.05.2026 | $64.24 | $58.5B | 54.9 | $5.7B | +9.1% | +80.4% |
| 30.04.2026 | $63.29 | $57.6B | 54.1 | $5.7B | +9.1% | +80.4% |
News
- 30.04.2026Snap: 01.05.2026●●○Realty Income Q1 2026 Earnings Preview: AFFO and Investment Volume in Focus
Realty Income reports Q1 2026 on May 6. Analysts expect $1.10 EPS and $1.5B revenue. Key focuses: AFFO per share tracking vs $4.38-4.42 guidance, investment activity pace toward $8B 2026 target, occupancy (target >98.5%), and any European deal announcements. At $64.24, Realty Income offers 5.2% AFFO yield vs 4.08% 10Y, the widest spread in 12 months.
Yahoo Finance - 01.05.2026●○○O stock down 8.6% in last 30 days — macro REIT rotation and tariff uncertainty weigh
Recent underperformance driven by REIT sector rotation and broader market uncertainty around tariffs impacting retail tenants. Pullback creates re-entry opportunity ahead of rate normalization.
Tickeron - 27.04.2026Snap: 01.05.2026●●○Morgan Stanley Lifts Realty Income Price Target on Revised AFFO Outlook
Morgan Stanley raised its Realty Income price target citing improved AFFO trajectory from the 2026 guidance midpoint of $4.40/share (+2.8% YoY) and the improving 10Y yield environment (at 4.08%). Q1 2026 earnings on May 6 expected to show AFFO tracking guidance. European expansion (Kaufland, Decathlon sale-leaseback) pipeline adds diversification premium.
Yahoo Finance - 01.05.2026●●○Realty Income 113th consecutive quarterly dividend increase — $0.27/month ($3.24 annualized)
Realty Income maintained its streak of consecutive dividend increases with the 113th quarterly raise. 667 consecutive monthly dividend payments. Annual dividend $3.24/share at 75% AFFO payout ratio.
PR Newswire / Realty Income - 01.05.2026●●●Fed cuts rates twice since December 2025; 10Y Treasury yield at 4.08%
Federal Reserve rate cuts and declining 10Y yield (from 4.58% peak to 4.08%) provide direct REIT tailwind by improving cap-rate spreads and reducing refinancing costs on Realty Income's $30B debt load.
247 Wall St. / MEXC Blog - 01.05.2026●●○Realty Income Q1 2026 earnings scheduled May 6 — consensus EPS $1.10 on $1.5B revenue
Q1 2026 earnings on May 6. Analysts watching for AFFO tracking to $4.38-4.42 guidance, acquisition pipeline updates, and any commentary on interest rate sensitivity.
247 Wall St. - 01.05.2026●●○Realty Income charts new financing path — securing cheaper capital ahead of key earnings
Company securing new financing arrangements at more favorable rates, taking advantage of rate environment improvement to reduce cost of capital on acquisition funding.
Stocks Today - 30.04.2026●○○Wall Street lukewarm on Realty Income while retail piles in — analysts see 5.6% upside
15 Analysten im Schnitt 'Hold', 12-Monats-Ziel $66.86 — deutlich unter unserem DCF-Fair-Value, was auf konservative Rate-Sensitivity-Annahmen im Street-Konsens hindeutet.
24/7 Wall St. - 30.04.2026●●○Realty Income Q4 2025: Revenue Beats, AFFO Steady at $1.08, Guides to $8B Investment Year
Q4-AFFO traf Schätzungen mit $1.08/Aktie; FY-2025 Revenue $5.76B (+9.2% YoY). Management plant $8B Neuinvestitionen in 2026 bei disziplinierter Kapitalallokation und weiterem Europa-Rollout.
Fintool / Company IR