claude-stocks
FX:1$ = 0.920
privat / nicomang
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O

Realty IncomeBUY
reit-net-lease · framework=dcf · peers=VICI, NNN, ADC, WPC, STAG
Preis
$64.24
+1.5%
vs 30.04.2026
Fair Value (blended)
$84.00
+4.8%
vs 30.04.2026
Upside
+30.8%
+15.7%
Confidence 0.74
Snapshot
01.05.2026
heute

Chart & Einstieg

Lade Chart …

Forward Fair Value · Calculator

%
Claude: 2.80 %
bps/Jahr
Claude: 50 bps/Jahr
x
Claude: 19.0 x
%
Claude: 7.00 %
JahrClaude FVDeine FVΔ FVRevenue (Deine)Margin (Deine)Upside ClaudeUpside Deine
Ende 2026$0.00$0.00$00.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Ende 2027$0.00$0.00$00.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Ende 2028$0.00$0.00$00.0%-100.0%-100.0%

Historie (5 Jahre)

Lade Historie …

Begründung

Realty Income trades at an implied 5.2% AFFO yield ($3.28 AFFO TTM / $64.24) versus a 10Y yield of 4.08%, offering a 112bp net-lease spread — historically associated with 20-25% total return over 12 months. AFFO guidance of $4.38-4.42/share for 2026 implies 2.3-3.3% growth, and at 19x P/AFFO (fair for a Baa1/BBB+ rated perpetual income vehicle) fair value is $84. Q1 2026 earnings on May 6 are expected to confirm guidance tracking; any European deal announcements (Kaufland, Decathlon sale-leaseback template) would be incrementally positive. The $30B net debt at competitive fixed rates is the principal risk — any 10Y yield spike above 4.5% would compress multiples by ~$8-10/share.

These · aktualisiert 01.05.2026

Bull Case

Realty Income is the gold standard of Net-Lease REITs: 667 consecutive monthly dividends, 98.7% occupancy across 1,500+ tenants, and investment-grade balance sheet. The improving rate environment (Fed at 3.75%, 10Y at 4.08%) directly compresses the WACC and expands the implied fair value to $82+. AFFO guidance of $4.38-4.42 is tight and reliable, implying a 5% dividend yield that is inflation-protected via rent escalators. European expansion (Sale-Leaseback deals with Kaufland, Decathlon) diversifies revenue geographically and opens a structurally underserved market. At $64, fair value upside of ~28% plus the 5% annual dividend yield creates a 30%+ total return potential over 12-18 months.

Bear Case

REITs remain structurally vulnerable to any re-acceleration of inflation forcing the Fed to re-hike. Net-Lease portfolios heavily exposed to US retail (~80%) — any wave of tenant bankruptcies (Walgreens, Dollar General restructurings) could spike vacancy above the 1.3% current free space. The $30B net debt at fixed/floating mix creates refinancing risk if credit spreads widen. At a 15-16x P/AFFO multiple, the stock is not deeply cheap — it's fairly valued with an improving macro tailwind.

Catalysts

May 6, 2026: Q1 2026 earnings report — AFFO tracking and guidance reaffirmation would be positive. Fed meetings May/June 2026: Further rate cuts (or pause signal) directly impacts REIT valuation. New European Sale-Leaseback deal announcements in Q2-Q3 2026. 10Y yield staying below 4.5% for sustained period enables multiple expansion.

Risks

1. Rate Reversal: Any 10Y yield spike above 4.5% on CPI surprise or debt concerns would compress multiples by $8-10/share per 50bp. 2. Tenant Stress: Walgreens and Dollar General continue to face operating pressure; concentrated exposure to both (~5-8% of portfolio) creates vacancy risk. 3. Capital Market Risk: $30B net debt requires regular refinancing; if credit spreads widen materially, cost of new acquisitions increases and AFFO growth slows.

Snapshot-History

DatumPreisMarket CapP/ERev TTMRev GrowthEBITDA-Marge
01.05.2026$64.24$58.5B54.9$5.7B+9.1%+80.4%
30.04.2026$63.29$57.6B54.1$5.7B+9.1%+80.4%

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